The odds compilers at the bookmakers have a responsible job of determining value when making bets. Bookmakers prefer to take as little risk as possible. An essential part of the evaluation is the historical odds. This page is entirely dedicated to the valuation of historical odds at bookmakers.
Bookmakers mainly rely on statistics
The odds that bookmakers prescribe for betting are based on many elements. Historical data is also included in odds. Odds are also determined by algorithms. These are enormously complex statistical models that take into account a great deal of historical data. They are, therefore, very accurate. But that dependence on historical data is also their greatest weakness. Let’s take a few examples. Like, what will happen if the motivation of a team is entirely different from usual? Or what if a team gets two red cards during the game? And what if a trainer starts with a lot of other players than usual? In such situations, algorithms can sometimes fail to accurately determine the odds. The odds compiler, an employee of a bookmaker, will make manual adjustments. But bookmakers are very vulnerable there. An odds compiler is much easier to beat if it can count on little help from algorithms.
Don’t be guided purely by statistics
Bookmakers use many complex formulas and systems when valuing odds to measure the best possible value from the bet. As an odds compiler, the bookmaker does this mainly with algorithms. Basically, these algorithms tell a story about the past and showdown of the team. Via these statistics, the bookmaker can then determine the best possible value against a prediction. Because algorithms are powerful at analyzing historical data, it is challenging to beat bookmakers on their own strengths. As a human, it is almost impossible to interpret statistics better than algorithms.
So, can the bookmakers be beaten?
Naturally, the bookmaker wants to take an as little risk of loss as possible. The bookmaker is therefore keen to obtain the correct score possible. However, this does not always work since the sport has many unique situations, making it suddenly challenging to predict a match in advance. Even with an algorithm!
Leave emotions out
The biggest enemy in sports betting is emotions. These often lead to impulsive bankroll management. That’s definitely killer for your long-term results. Rationality and staying limited to the facts are crucial. Does that mean that you can never bet on your favourite team? No, of course not. Because often you know things about your team that bookmakers have not noticed. Just make sure your bets are based on that knowledge and not hope. So very important in winning the bookmaker. Always establish your chances with betting on analysis, understanding and facts. Avoid getting caught up in the emotion of the match.
Monitor your predictable clubs by social media
Keep a close eye on the clubs you will be placing a bet on. Don’t miss a thing and always be up to date! This is certainly an element that is often underestimated by gamblers.
You can outsmart the bookmakers by getting hold of information before the bookmakers. Social media is the ideal tool for this. After all, many news sites nowadays collect their information from social media. If you monitor social media channels of teams and athletes directly, you have input before news sites have it. This may include injuries to players, line-ups of teams, etc.
Bet on less popular leagues and tournaments
Bookmakers ultimately want to make as much profit as possible and focus on the competitions where there is the most significant interest. You can imagine that the English Premier League and Bundesliga or La Liga get a lot more attention from the bookmakers than lower leagues or even amateur clubs. And that makes sense! Millions of bets are placed daily in the first competitions mentioned and are therefore played for serious money. The lower leagues will never attract that much audience and thus pose a much lower risk to bookmakers. So are you well aware of football elements or specific knowledge in the lower divisions? Then you have a significant advantage, and you can just beat the bookmaker!